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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-03-16T13:26:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-16T13:26Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45103/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is not seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2026-03-14T12:09Z. The source is an M2.7 flare and eruption from Active Region 14392 (S15E19) starting around 2026-03-13T12:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 imagery. A corresponding EUV wave is observed moving primarily northwest of the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195/304 imagery, with post-eruptive arcades visible starting around 2026-03-16T13:00Z. | Arrival information: Analysis of the complex arrival signature over 3/19 thorugh 3/22 indicates that we likely did not observe this CME separately from the other arrival signatures, and considering it a miss.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-19T12:27Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45108/1
Model Inputs:
2026-03-16T13:26:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-13.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=483.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2026-03-16T18:59Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-19T12:27Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =19.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-17T18:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260316_185900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 66.30 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-16T18:09Z

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